This study started with an argument we didn’t settle ourselves. Readers of The Modern Strategist, our newsletter, send in the debates their teams can’t resolve. One arrived from a team split in two, with one side sure the budget should follow creators and the other sure that creator reach no longer meant much. Neither side had a number that settled it.
So we tested influencer marketing vs word of mouth directly. In July 2026 we surveyed 507 US adults about whom they trust and what led to their recent purchases. We also asked whom they would follow when a friend and an influencer disagree.
What We Wanted to Find Out About Influencer Marketing vs Word of Mouth
The budget side of the argument is clear. Aspire’s State of Influencer Marketing 2026 projects US influencer marketing spend to grow by about 16% in 2026, reaching $13.7 billion by 2027. Brands now put an average of 23% of their total marketing budget into creator partnerships. In Influencer Marketing Hub’s 2026 Benchmark Report, 87% of brands expect to increase their influencer budget this year and 6% expect to cut it.
The trust side points somewhere else. The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer finds trust moving toward people’s own circles, a shift it calls “From We to Me”. Trust in neighbors, family and friends is up 11 points net. Trust in national government leaders is down 16 points, and trust in major news organizations is down 11.
Edelman adds a nuance. 48% of the people Edelman surveyed trust a food or lifestyle influencer. Among them, 62% say they would trust or consider trusting a company they currently distrust if that influencer vouched for it. Among the 44% who trust a financial influencer, the figure is 57%. On that reading, influencer trust works through specific people in specific categories.
Brand budgets measure what marketers believe works, and trust surveys measure what consumers say they believe. Neither shows which source people follow when two recommendations compete, or what came before a purchase. That is what we set out to measure. We built the survey around one comparison, a friend’s recommendation against an influencer’s, asked both in general and as a forced choice.
Do People Trust Friends or Influencers More
Asked directly, people split evenly. 25% of the people we surveyed say influencers carry more weight in their purchases, and 25% say friends and family. Another 33% say the two count about the same.
We then forced the choice. When a friend and an influencer recommend competing products, 31% pick the friend’s product and 2% pick the influencer’s. Most people did not choose either. Among the third who took a side, more than nine in ten went with the friend.
The two answers describe different situations. In general, people credit influencers and friends about equally. When the two pull in opposite directions, the friend wins among those who decide, and most people decline to pick.
What Led to People’s Recent Purchases
We also asked people to name the source behind a recent purchase they describe as driven by a recommendation. Friends and family come up for 38%. Influencers, across the three tiers we tested, come up for 45%. Brand advertising comes up for 3%. Asked this way, people credit influencers more often than any other source.
Here influencers come out ahead of friends, the reverse of the forced choice. The two questions measure different things. The forced choice asks whom people would follow when sources compete. This question asks what people remember as the source of a purchase they say they have already made. Both questions matter in the influencer marketing vs word of mouth debate, and they give different answers.
Brand advertising is rarely credited as a recommendation. That does not tell us how much it shaped the purchase, only that people do not remember it as advice.
Who Buys Through Influencers
The widest gap in the survey is between heavy and light social media users. From here on, “active users” means the 292 people who use social platforms several times a day. “Passive users” means the 215 who use them once a day or less.
94% of active users say they have bought something through an influencer, against 46% of passive users. 63% of active users attribute a recent purchase to an influencer, against 21% of passive users. Of the 374 people who say they have bought through an influencer, nearly three in four are active users.
The two groups also see influence differently. 40% of active users say influencers outweigh friends and family, against 5% of passive users. Among people on social platforms once a day or less, the view that influencers matter more than friends is rare.
Does Trust in Influencers Depend on Age
Niche creators are often described as a channel for young audiences. In our survey, 15% of 18 to 34-year-olds trust micro and nano influencers, and so do 15% of people aged 55 and over. The difference between the two groups is less than one point.
On this measure, age makes almost no difference. Friends and family are also the most trusted source in every age group in the survey. How often people use social media separates them far more than how old they are.
How Often Influencer Purchases End in Regret
Of the 374 people who say they have bought something through an influencer, 144, or 39%, say they regretted a purchase. Nearly four influencer buyers in ten report regret.
Regret is higher among men. 43% of male influencer buyers say they regretted a purchase, against 34% of female buyers. Purchase figures alone show neither number.
What the Data Means for Influencer Marketing vs Word of Mouth
Three checks follow from the figures for anyone weighing influencer marketing vs word of mouth.
Check what your trust and reach metrics actually measure. When a friend and an influencer compete, 31% of the people we surveyed follow the friend and 2% the influencer. In general, both are credited about equally. A trust score or a follower count says little about what happens when recommendations compete.
Check how much of your audience is on social media several times a day. 94% of active users say they have bought through an influencer, against 46% of passive users. An influencer budget reaches the first group far more than the second.
Check what happens after the purchase. 39% of influencer buyers say they regretted a purchase. Sales from a creator campaign don’t show how many of those buyers were satisfied with what they bought.
What the Study Doesn’t Tell Us
The figures describe what people told us, including the purchases they remember, not purchases we observed. The forced choice is a hypothetical, so the 31% who pick the friend describe a preference rather than a decision at the checkout. The budget and trust figures from Aspire, Influencer Marketing Hub and Edelman come from other studies, each with its own method.
Going Further
The full report covers every question, including the six recommendation sources we tested and breakdowns by social media use, age, income and gender. We have run similar studies on beauty dupes and private label snacks. These figures describe the category. For a specific brand, that’s what Brand Health and Brand Tracking measure.
Methodology: 507 US adults, nationally representative, surveyed by Standard Insights in July 2026. Active social media users (multiple times a day): N = 292 (57.6%). Passive or occasional users (once a day or less): N = 215 (42.4%). Influencer buyers (have bought via an influencer): N = 374.
