How We Predicted the Outcome of the 2022 Philippine Elections

As we reflect on the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, we evaluate the accuracy of our predictions and the methodologies that made them possible.

2022 Philippine Elections

Use Case

Forecasting presidential elections


Government Administration


The Philippines

The Situation

Predicting high-stakes election

On May 9, 2022, the Philippines held its Presidential election, which was highly anticipated due to the end of former President Rodrigo Duterte’s two-term limit. The election was a chance for the citizens of the Philippines to elect a new president and vice president who would continue to shape the country’s economic and social policies.

Despite the challenges of a pandemic, the 2022 Philippine Presidential election had an impressive voter turnout of 55.5 million Filipinos, which accounted for approximately 82.6% of the 67.4 million registered voters.

Standard Insights’ mission was to accurately predict the outcome of the 2022 Philippine presidential election by gathering comprehensive insights into the voting patterns and behaviors of the Filipino population. Their goal was to achieve the highest possible accuracy rate in forecasting the election results.

The Solution

Capture the representative voice of the population

To accurately predict the outcome of the 2022 Philippine presidential election, Standard Insights implemented a rigorous survey to gather data from over 2100 qualified respondents from diverse social media platforms. The company ensured that the survey sample was reflective of the current demographics of the Philippines by implementing minimum quotas in gender, age, and location.

The survey consisted of 30 questions that focused on voting intentions and contemporary topics such as vote buying and perceived issues in the country. Standard Insights designed the survey questions to provide valuable insights into the preferences of voters, while their extensive knowledge of the APAC region provided additional context to the survey data. By combining survey data and their knowledge of the region.

The Results

Numbers speak for themselves

Survey accuracy
1 %
Qualified Respondents

Standard Insights successfully predicted the outcome of the Philippine presidential election in 2022 with an accuracy rate of over 98%.

The official results showed that former senator Bongbong Marcos won the presidency with 56.44% of the total votes, while Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte won the vice presidency with 57.47% of the total votes. Standard Insights predicted Marcos’ win with an accuracy rating of 94.15% and Duterte’s win with an accuracy rating of 96.46%. Similarly, the company accurately predicted the percentage of votes received by Leni Robredo and Kiko Pangilinan, who placed second in the presidential and vice presidential races, respectively.

Standard Insights’ success in predicting the outcome of the election can be attributed to their commitment to quality consumer insights, rigorous methodology, and expertise in the APAC region. The company’s accurate forecast provided businesses and organizations with reliable data and insights to inform important decisions.

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